What if inflation rises 5%? Asking the question before it happens

Every brand team runs scenarios in their heads: what if the levy goes up, what if a rival launches a cheaper pack, what if the school term shifts? A what-if scenario is the same exercise written down, with evidence attached.

What goes in

A useful scenario needs three inputs:

1. The change itself, stated plainly. “Inflation rises 5% and the government restricts wheat imports” is specific enough to test. “The economy gets worse” is not.
2. How similar changes moved demand before. Past price rises, past import restrictions, past squeezes on the household budget, in your category and in neighbouring ones.
3. The current signal picture. The same change lands differently when shoppers are already trading down than when they are not.

What comes out

The output is not a single number. It is a direction and a size for each of the 4Ps, with a range on demand. For the illustrative Crispo example on our site, a 5% inflation rise with wheat imports restricted gives:

• Product: the mix shifts toward the small Mini pack.
• Price: a Rs 10 rise on the 190g pack holds; a Rs 20 rise does not.
• Place: small shops near schools gain share from supermarkets.
• Promotion: value messaging lands better than health messaging for a while.
• Demand: Cream Cracker down about 6%, Mini up about 9%, over eight weeks.

Figures are illustrative.

What it should never pretend to be

A scenario shows effects. It does not decide, and it does not know what your competitors will do next week. Treat it as the best available evidence for a decision the team still has to make, then watch the real signals and real sales to see whether the estimate held.

That discipline, scenario first, then evidence, then adjustment, is how a marketing team stops reacting to last month’s numbers. It is the third of the three things Forevate does, and you can try the example on the home page or start a pilot to run it on your own brand.